1204_LEM_globe355x209With the close of a tremendous year for global stock markets near, it is time to look forward to 2014.  As I have reiterated many times, the successful investor isn’t concerned with what has happened in the past but rather what is going to happen in the future.

Here are three key story lines to watch in 2014:

  • Global Easy Monetary Policy – Despite ultra-easy monetary policy around the globe, 2013 central banks have been able to avoid uncomfortable spikes in inflation.  In 2014 it will be important to watch the divergence of monetary policy by the globe’s major central banks (specifically those in the US, Japan and Europe).  Regions that continue to deal with high unemployment (Europe) and long-term deflation (Japan) are likely to continue with their extraordinary economic assistance as long as inflation remains tepid.  Domestically, the Federal Reserve has already begun reducing their bond buying.  How do these factors combine to impact the global economy?
  • Europe’s Continued Recovery – The European Union bloc remains divided.  Northern countries like England and Germany have low unemployment and strong economies while the Southern Cone countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc.) remain stuck with persistently high unemployment, aging populations and bickering politicians.  Resolution of conflicts between these countries leadership and subsequently improving economies could provide a big boost to global GDP growth.
  • China’s Continued Transition – For decades China was focused on growing its economy by being a low-cost producer of goods for the developed world.  Consequently they consumed massive amounts of raw commodities (iron ore, gold, etc) and produced low-cost finished goods.  In 2013 they worked through a once a decade change in government leadership.  How will the new leaders chose to position the country for growth in the next ten years?  Do they remain outwardly focused on shift to strengthen their domestic economy by pursuing policy objectives to help the Chinese consumer?

These are just a few economic stories worth following this year.  All have the ability to have a tremendous impact on the direction of the global economy.  Be sure to understand how these themes potentially impact any investments you have made (or are going to make).  Remember, it isn’t about where the puck was, but where it is going to be next.

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